Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 22/36 | 241 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley Pritchett | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Nate Jacquet | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dan Marino | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 8 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Yatil Green | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.