1999 · Week 15

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Jim Harbaugh

9·12

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

Total

37

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–MIA
LACQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:2830Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:2833Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:54845Field goal0–3
LACQ1 7:1931Punt0–3
MIAQ1 5:5634Punt0–3
LACQ1 4:211058Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 14:57619Punt3–3
LACQ2 11:0640Punt3–3
MIAQ2 10:04779Field goal3–6
LACQ2 5:2839Punt3–6
MIAQ2 4:01529Punt3–6
LACQ2 1:40612Punt3–6
MIAQ2 0:081-1End of half3–6
MIAQ3 15:0037Punt3–6
LACQ3 13:4231Punt3–6
MIAQ3 12:29524Punt3–6
LACQ3 9:49828Punt3–6
MIAQ3 5:54330Turnover3–6
LACQ3 4:401020Field goal6–6
MIAQ4 14:5733Punt6–6
LACQ4 13:4837Punt6–6
MIAQ4 12:102-3Turnover6–6
LACQ4 11:313-8Field goal9–6
MIAQ4 10:11832Field goal9–9
LACQ4 6:061-3Turnover9–9
MIAQ4 5:47417Field goal9–12
LACQ4 3:221062Missed field goal9–12
MIAQ4 0:051-1End of half9–12

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Marino22/3624100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stanley Pritchett15382.50
Autry Denson5132.60
Nate Jacquet144.00
Dan Marino2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Martin810860
Oronde Gadsden47830
Stanley Pritchett34220
Hunter Goodwin22170
Troy Drayton23140
O.J. McDuffie13100
Yatil Green1270
Autry Denson1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.66

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.