Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play-0.070
- 47.3%Success rate41.4%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.242
- 11.5%Explosive rate6.9%
- +4.40CPOE-1.84
- 42.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.34Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. LAC are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28/45 | 466 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Erik Ezukanma | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 15 | 215 | 2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/33 | 229 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 117 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62