2023 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

36·34

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChargers
  • +0.095EPA / play-0.070
  • 47.3%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.242
  • 11.5%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +4.40CPOE-1.84
  • 42.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.75
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. LAC are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS
2014 · W9SD @ MIA0–37MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LAC
MIAQ1 15:00668Turnover0–0
LACQ1 12:021494Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 4:39971Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 1:1538Punt7–7
MIAQ2 14:46772Field goal10–7
LACQ2 11:43675Touchdown10–14
MIAQ2 9:0738Punt10–14
LACQ2 8:0836Punt10–14
MIAQ2 6:341285Touchdown17–14
LACQ2 1:42943Field goal17–17
MIAQ2 0:09222Field goal20–17
LACQ3 15:001357Touchdown20–24
MIAQ3 9:19949Turnover20–24
LACQ3 4:313-3Punt26–24
MIAQ3 2:18135Touchdown27–24
LACQ3 2:121075Touchdown27–31
MIAQ4 14:00853Field goal30–31
LACQ4 10:031468Field goal30–34
MIAQ4 3:53875Touchdown36–34
LACQ4 1:45510Turnover on downs36–34
MIAQ4 0:5500End of half36–34

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa28/4546631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert10373.71
Erik Ezukanma2178.50
Salvon Ahmed3113.70
Tua Tagovailoa551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill11152152
Jaylen Waddle45780
Durham Smythe37440
Braxton Berrios35420
River Cracraft35401
Raheem Mostert22130
Salvon Ahmed0300

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert23/3322910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler161177.31
Joshua Kelley16915.71
Justin Herbert5173.41
Keenan Allen263.00
Gerald Everett122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen69760
Austin Ekeler45470
Mike Williams45450
Donald Parham33221
Gerald Everett23210
Quentin Johnston2390
Derius Davis1150
Josh Palmer1140
Joshua Kelley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.62