Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.021
- 43.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.01CPOE+1.82
- 46.7%Third-down rate34.1%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.10Points / drive1.92
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 29/38 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal | 18 | 124 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 7 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 7 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/32 | 205 | 1 | 3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 16 | 128 | 8.0 | 2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Tanner Conner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.05