2025 · Week 6

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

29·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.021
  • 43.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.028
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.01CPOE+1.82
  • 46.7%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.92
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS
2014 · W9SD @ MIA0–37MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0022Turnover0–0
LACQ1 14:061027Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 7:5234Punt3–0
LACQ1 6:13421Turnover3–6
MIAQ1 4:11149Touchdown3–7
LACQ1 4:03655Field goal6–7
MIAQ1 0:35737Missed field goal6–7
LACQ2 11:57547Field goal9–7
MIAQ2 8:39736Field goal9–10
LACQ2 4:30518Punt9–10
MIAQ2 1:38983Field goal9–13
LACQ3 15:001377Touchdown16–13
MIAQ3 7:263-3Turnover16–13
LACQ3 5:54437Touchdown23–13
MIAQ3 3:553-8Punt23–13
LACQ3 2:21862Field goal26–13
MIAQ4 12:471059Touchdown26–20
LACQ4 7:56415Punt26–20
MIAQ4 6:191382Touchdown26–27
LACQ4 0:46544Field goal29–27
MIAQ4 0:0510Turnover29–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert29/3826420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kimani Vidal181246.90
Hassan Haskins6142.30
Justin Herbert122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey791001
Oronde Gadsden II78680
Keenan Allen47270
Tre Harris45270
Will Dissly22180
Kimani Vidal34141
Hassan Haskins1190
KeAndre Lambert-Smith1210

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/3220513
Jaylen Waddle1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane161288.02
Tua Tagovailoa144.00
Malik Washington111.00
Ollie Gordon II210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle68950
Julian Hill33310
De'Von Achane46220
Malik Washington45220
Darren Waller23121
Tanner Conner1180
Ollie Gordon II1110
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100
Dee Eskridge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.05