Closing spread
SD -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/24 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 8 | 103 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.