Closing spread
SD -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Dolphins
- OutXavien HowardCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony SteenGNeck· Full
- QuestionableChris CulliverCBKnee· Full
- QuestionableDion SimsTEConcussion· Full
- QuestionableIsa Abdul-QuddusSAnkle· Full
- QuestionableJarvis LandryWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJelani JenkinsLBHand· Full
- QuestionableJermon BushrodTShoulder· Full
- QuestionableKenny StillsWRCalf· Limited
- QuestionableLeonte CarrooWRKnee· Full
- QuestionableMarQueis GrayTEAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutDenzel PerrymanLBHamstring· DNP
- OutJatavis BrownLBKnee· DNP
- OutJeremy ButlerWRAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulJahleel AddaeSCollarbone· Limited
- DoubtfulTravis BenjaminWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCraig MagerCBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableHunter HenryTEKnee· Full
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGConcussion· Full
- QuestionableTyrell WilliamsWRKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:00 | 10 | 46 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:34 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 4:30 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:54 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 14:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 12:30 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q2 7:37 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:50 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q2 0:45 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 12:29 | 13 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q3 5:36 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q3 1:43 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 13:41 | 5 | 0 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| MIA | Q4 12:38 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 11:33 | 9 | 54 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| MIA | Q4 6:59 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 5:06 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q4 4:04 | 4 | 57 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q4 2:57 | 4 | 33 | Opp touchdown | 31–24 |
| LAC | Q4 1:01 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 31–24 |
| MIA | Q4 0:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/24 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 8 | 103 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.