Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.085
- 39.2%Success rate44.9%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.082
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.06CPOE+0.86
- 31.0%Third-down rate40.7%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.31Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. LAC are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 24/33 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 28 | 122 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 13 | 15 | 78 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 31/39 | 331 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branden Oliver | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 10 | 100 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 7 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+5.46