2017 · Week 2

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

19·17

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChargers
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.085
  • 39.2%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.082
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.06CPOE+0.86
  • 31.0%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.87
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. LAC are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS
2014 · W9SD @ MIA0–37MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LAC
LACQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:251260Field goal3–0
LACQ1 7:07424Punt3–0
MIAQ1 3:3334Punt3–0
LACQ1 1:17523Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 13:41834Punt3–3
LACQ2 8:58967Touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 5:0138Punt3–10
LACQ2 3:01955Missed field goal3–10
MIAQ2 0:30615Turnover on downs3–10
MIAQ3 15:00760Touchdown10–10
LACQ3 12:07877Touchdown10–17
MIAQ3 8:181167Field goal13–17
LACQ3 2:43847Punt13–17
MIAQ4 13:331374Field goal16–17
LACQ4 6:28619Punt16–17
MIAQ4 3:02415Field goal19–17
LACQ4 1:05649Missed field goal19–17
MIAQ4 0:0500End of half19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler24/3323010
Jarvis Landry0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi281224.40
Jay Cutler2-1-0.50
Kenyan Drake1-3-3.00
Jarvis Landry1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker49850
Jarvis Landry1315780
Kenny Stills25371
Julius Thomas33260
Jay Ajayi2240

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers31/3933110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Branden Oliver33110.30
Melvin Gordon9131.41
Philip Rivers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen9101000
Hunter Henry77800
Melvin Gordon78650
Tyrell Williams44540
Antonio Gates24111
Travis Benjamin13110
Sean McGrath11100
Dontrelle Inman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+5.46