Closing spread
LAC -15
Total
43.5
Model margin
-3.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.076
- 47.3%Success rate41.5%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.268
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- +3.58CPOE-2.66
- 45.5%Third-down rate35.1%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.99Points / drive1.62
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 24/30 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Troymaine Pope | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrelle Inman | 5 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Geremy Davis | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Sean Culkin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 17/24 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Preston Williams | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.44