2019 · Week 4

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

30·10

Dolphins

Miami

QB Josh Rosen

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

LAC -15

Total

43.5

Model margin

-3.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.076
  • 47.3%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.268
  • 9.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +3.58CPOE-2.66
  • 45.5%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.62
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS
2014 · W9SD @ MIA0–37MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–MIA
LACQ1 15:00864Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 10:12780Touchdown3–7
LACQ1 6:32760Touchdown10–7
MIAQ1 2:451557Field goal10–10
LACQ2 11:101050Turnover on downs10–10
MIAQ2 6:05616Missed field goal10–10
LACQ2 3:34860Touchdown17–10
MIAQ2 0:43644Missed field goal17–10
MIAQ3 15:00517Punt17–10
LACQ3 11:551677Field goal20–10
MIAQ3 1:223-7Punt20–10
LACQ4 14:49756Touchdown27–10
MIAQ4 11:2023Turnover27–10
LACQ4 10:28515Field goal30–10
MIAQ4 7:21823Turnover on downs30–10
LACQ4 3:56311End of half30–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers24/3031020
Tyrod Taylor1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler18603.31
Troymaine Pope10202.00
Philip Rivers100.00
Tyrod Taylor4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontrelle Inman57760
Austin Ekeler55621
Keenan Allen55480
Lance Kendricks23370
Geremy Davis22250
Andre Patton24220
Troymaine Pope22141
Sean Culkin11120

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen17/2418011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake9444.90
Mark Walton6233.80
Kalen Ballage273.50
Jakeem Grant1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker44701
Preston Williams47460
Kenyan Drake35290
Mark Walton22110
Nick O'Leary1190
Isaiah Ford2390
Jakeem Grant1160
Kalen Ballage0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -152.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.44