2020 · Week 10

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

21·29

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.026
  • 43.8%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.124
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.07CPOE+1.23
  • 45.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.99
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2022 · W14MIA @ LAC17–23CHARGERS
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS
2014 · W9SD @ MIA0–37MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–MIA
LACQ1 15:003-4Punt0–6
MIAQ1 12:5811Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 12:54748Punt0–7
LACQ1 8:1310Punt0–7
MIAQ1 8:021388Touchdown0–14
LACQ1 0:5837Punt0–14
MIAQ2 14:50947Turnover0–14
LACQ2 10:161137Touchdown7–14
MIAQ2 4:2539Punt7–14
LACQ2 2:00511Punt7–14
MIAQ2 1:06415Field goal7–17
LACQ2 0:2400End of half7–17
MIAQ3 15:0036Punt7–17
LACQ3 13:401168Touchdown14–17
MIAQ3 7:02763Field goal14–20
LACQ3 2:30627Turnover14–20
MIAQ4 14:10532Touchdown14–26
LACQ4 11:3832Punt14–26
MIAQ4 10:4039Missed field goal14–26
LACQ4 8:2249Turnover on downs14–26
MIAQ4 6:37614Field goal14–29
LACQ4 3:59869Touchdown21–29
MIAQ4 1:5700End of half21–29

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert20/3218721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kalen Ballage18683.80
Joshua Kelley7213.00
Justin Herbert4102.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen37391
Mike Williams25380
Kalen Ballage56340
Hunter Henry46301
Jalen Guyton46240
Donald Parham11130

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa15/2516920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Salvon Ahmed21854.01
Patrick Laird2199.50
Malcolm Perry166.00
DeAndre Washington221.00
Tua Tagovailoa6-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakeem Grant45431
Mike Gesicki25400
DeVante Parker27310
Malcolm Perry22210
Adam Shaheen11190
Durham Smythe2291
Salvon Ahmed1150
Mack Hollins1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.66