Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.026
- 43.8%Success rate46.8%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.124
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.07CPOE+1.23
- 45.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.02Points / drive1.99
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/32 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalen Ballage | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Jalen Guyton | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 15/25 | 169 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvon Ahmed | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Washington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakeem Grant | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66