2022 · Week 14

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

17·23

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

54.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChargers
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.007
  • 44.6%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.057
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +0.08CPOE+1.13
  • 37.6%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. LAC are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LAC @ MIA29–27CHARGERS
2023 · W1MIA @ LAC36–34MIA
2020 · W10LAC @ MIA21–29MIA
2019 · W4LAC @ MIA30–10CHARGERS
2017 · W2MIA @ LAC19–17MIA
2016 · W10MIA @ SD31–24MIA
2015 · W15MIA @ SD14–30CHARGERS
2014 · W9SD @ MIA0–37MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LAC
MIAQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
LACQ1 14:371673Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 5:58614Punt0–0
LACQ1 2:36742Field goal0–3
MIAQ2 14:143-9Punt0–3
LACQ2 12:41543Touchdown0–10
MIAQ2 9:4949Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 8:4531Punt7–10
MIAQ2 6:22733Punt7–10
LACQ2 4:031390Touchdown7–17
MIAQ2 0:1828End of half7–17
LACQ3 15:00311Punt7–17
MIAQ3 13:3231Punt7–17
LACQ3 12:37719Punt7–17
MIAQ3 9:05576Touchdown14–17
LACQ3 6:23567Field goal14–20
MIAQ3 4:18515Punt14–20
LACQ3 1:3539Punt14–20
MIAQ4 14:52639Punt14–20
LACQ4 11:191679Field goal14–23
MIAQ4 2:40733Field goal17–23
LACQ4 1:1000End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa10/2814510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert11373.40
Tua Tagovailoa3289.30
Jeff Wilson4266.50
Salvon Ahmed111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill410811
Jaylen Waddle24310
Cedrick Wilson Jr.22190
Raheem Mostert1170
Trent Sherfield1470
Mike Gesicki0200

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert39/5136710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler15453.01
Joshua Kelley4297.30
Justin Herbert482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams661161
Keenan Allen1214920
Austin Ekeler88590
Josh Palmer46530
Gerald Everett58280
Stone Smartt1180
Joshua Kelley1260
Tre' McKitty1150
DeAndre Carter1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

6.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.92