Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
54.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.007
- 44.6%Success rate44.1%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.057
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.9%
- +0.08CPOE+1.13
- 37.6%Third-down rate43.5%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.11Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. LAC are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 10/28 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 39/51 | 367 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 6 | 116 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 12 | 14 | 92 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.92