Closing spread
SD -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Dolphins
- OutEarl MitchellDTCalf· DNP
- OutJa'Wuan JamesTToe· DNP
- DoubtfulJelani JenkinsLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBobby McCainCBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableRishard MatthewsWRRibs· Limited
- ProbableJarvis LandryWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableBilly TurnerGCalf· Full
- ProbableDamien WilliamsRBBack· Full
- ProbableLamar MillerRBAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutKing DunlapTAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulSteve JohnsonWRGroin· DNP
- QuestionableLadarius GreenTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSean LissemoreDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableSteve WilliamsCBHip· Limited
- ProbableChris HairstonTAbdomen· Full
- ProbableD.J. FlukerGConcussion· Full
- ProbableDontrelle InmanWRNeck· Full
- ProbableJavontee HerndonWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableOrlando FranklinGIllness· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:30 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q1 4:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q1 2:28 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q1 0:59 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q2 14:15 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LAC | Q2 13:17 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| MIA | Q2 9:05 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LAC | Q2 7:27 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–16 |
| MIA | Q2 4:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–16 |
| LAC | Q2 3:07 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–23 |
| MIA | Q2 0:39 | 4 | 28 | End of half | 0–23 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–23 |
| MIA | Q3 13:23 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–23 |
| LAC | Q3 12:05 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–23 |
| MIA | Q3 10:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–23 |
| LAC | Q3 8:25 | 9 | 52 | Missed field goal | 0–23 |
| MIA | Q3 3:39 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| LAC | Q3 1:30 | 14 | 60 | Turnover | 7–23 |
| MIA | Q4 8:39 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–23 |
| LAC | Q4 7:05 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–30 |
| MIA | Q4 4:14 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| LAC | Q4 1:35 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 14–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/34 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.