1999 · Week 15 · Division

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

30·36

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Mile High Stadium · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

39

Model margin

+3.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.035
  • 39.0%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 33.0%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.38
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.063

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DEN
SEAQ1 15:00312Opp touchdown0–7
DENQ1 12:5100Opp touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 12:51468Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 10:431074Touchdown7–14
SEAQ1 5:5433Punt7–14
DENQ1 4:41414Punt7–14
SEAQ1 2:47631Punt7–14
DENQ2 14:39771Turnover7–14
SEAQ2 11:14423Turnover7–14
DENQ2 9:02628Field goal7–17
SEAQ2 6:48621Touchdown14–17
DENQ2 4:07421Punt14–17
SEAQ2 1:47531Punt14–17
DENQ2 0:40513Missed field goal14–17
DENQ3 15:001444Field goal14–20
SEAQ3 9:01731Field goal17–20
DENQ3 5:411052Field goal17–23
SEAQ3 0:0140Punt17–23
DENQ4 14:0461Missed field goal17–23
SEAQ4 12:0133Punt17–23
DENQ4 11:03626Turnover17–23
SEAQ4 8:40848Field goal20–23
DENQ4 3:41485Touchdown20–30
SEAQ4 1:47355Touchdown27–30
DENQ4 0:5400Field goal27–30
SEAQ4 0:53526Field goal30–30
DENQ4 0:091-1End of half30–30
DENOT32Punt30–30
SEAOT612Opp touchdown30–36

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna22/4227820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters161157.21
Joey Galloway1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean Dawkins511880
Derrick Mayes47701
Joey Galloway38340
Mike Pritchard23271
Ricky Watters34200
Christian Fauria12110
Itula Mili1280

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese20/3918022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Olandis Gary221838.30
Brian Griese45213.00
Derek Loville7253.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith711821
Ed McCaffrey37400
Olandis Gary23160
Howard Griffith1180
Derek Loville2370
Detron Smith2370
Byron Chamberlain1510
Travis McGriff0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.48