Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.035
- 39.0%Success rate40.6%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.40Points / drive1.38
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.063
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/42 | 278 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 16 | 115 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 5 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 4 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 20/39 | 180 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 22 | 183 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 7 | 11 | 82 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Detron Smith | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.48