Closing spread
CAR -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.026
- 41.7%Success rate42.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- 34.4%Third-down rate38.5%
- 42.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.14Points / drive1.98
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.079EPA / play allowed+0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 12:01 | 5 | 13 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 9:15 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SF | Q1 5:08 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CAR | Q1 3:14 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| SF | Q1 1:52 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q1 0:24 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| SF | Q2 12:15 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 10–24 |
| CAR | Q2 7:35 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 10–24 |
| SF | Q2 4:54 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 10–24 |
| CAR | Q2 1:47 | 10 | 52 | End of half | 10–24 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| CAR | Q3 10:18 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| SF | Q3 8:33 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–31 |
| CAR | Q3 7:26 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 17–34 |
| SF | Q3 2:44 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| CAR | Q4 14:55 | 13 | 60 | Touchdown | 24–41 |
| SF | Q4 7:30 | 16 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 24–41 |
| CAR | Q4 3:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–41 |
| SF | Q4 2:32 | 10 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 24–41 |
| CAR | Q4 1:19 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 24–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 29/46 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 9 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Jerry Rice | 2 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Greg Clark | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 27/38 | 368 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Lane | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Lewis | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Jeffers | 8 | 11 | 138 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 11 | 11 | 126 | 3 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35