Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
38
Model margin
+4.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.094
- 35.9%Success rate38.5%
- -0.148EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.226EPA / rush-0.220
- 5.9%Explosive rate7.2%
- 33.3%Third-down rate35.1%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 0.87Points / drive1.22
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:52 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:50 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 14:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 12:32 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 8:18 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 4:39 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ATL | Q2 3:00 | 9 | 40 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q2 0:42 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q2 0:21 | 3 | 21 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q3 4:39 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 14–27 |
| ATL | Q3 2:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q3 0:50 | 5 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 14–27 |
| ATL | Q4 14:08 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| ARI | Q4 10:06 | 7 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 14–34 |
| ATL | Q4 7:28 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 14–37 |
| ARI | Q4 3:03 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 14–37 |
| ATL | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 14–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 15/26 | 217 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bates | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 4 | 106 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| David Boston | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/23 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Hanspard | 26 | 102 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Winslow Oliver | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tony Graziani | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugene Baker | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83