Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.014
- 44.5%Success rate42.7%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.159EPA / rush+0.004
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- +2.32CPOE-1.81
- 41.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.01Points / drive1.85
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/36 | 356 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 8 | 8 | 117 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 8 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 3 | 30 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/37 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 6 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Damiere Byrd | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49