2019 · Week 6

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

33·34

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

52.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.014
  • 44.5%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.159EPA / rush+0.004
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +2.32CPOE-1.81
  • 41.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.85
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–ARI
ATLQ1 15:001270Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 9:23857Field goal7–3
ATLQ1 5:41515Punt7–3
ARIQ1 2:541093Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 13:023-1Punt7–10
ARIQ2 10:54479Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 9:021054Field goal10–17
ARIQ2 3:371371Field goal10–20
ATLQ2 0:0400End of half10–20
ARIQ3 15:001059Touchdown10–27
ATLQ3 11:25749Field goal13–27
ARIQ3 7:46532Punt13–27
ATLQ3 5:361093Touchdown20–27
ARIQ3 1:0239Punt20–27
ATLQ4 14:02978Touchdown27–27
ARIQ4 10:5035Punt27–27
ATLQ4 9:14411Punt27–27
ARIQ4 7:12630Touchdown27–34
ATLQ4 5:12775Touchdown33–34
ARIQ4 1:53310End of half33–34

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/3635640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman19884.60
Matt Ryan273.50
Ito Smith362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper881171
Julio Jones891080
Calvin Ridley46481
Devonta Freeman33302
Mohamed Sanu34290
Jaeden Graham11210
Russell Gage1160
Luke Stocker1100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/3734030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson12342.81
Chase Edmonds5346.80
Kyler Murray11322.90
Pharoh Cooper122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald68690
David Johnson68681
Damiere Byrd22600
Trent Sherfield11380
Maxx Williams33341
Chase Edmonds22331
Pharoh Cooper34160
KeeSean Johnson25140
Charles Clay2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49