2016 · Week 12

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

19·38

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+3.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.196
  • 45.3%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.093EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -0.78CPOE+6.59
  • 40.4%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.93
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–ATL
ARIQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 9:391271Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 3:381081Field goal10–7
ATLQ2 12:52944Field goal10–10
ARIQ2 8:30534Punt10–10
ATLQ2 6:2034Punt10–10
ARIQ2 4:554-2Punt10–10
ATLQ2 3:10245Touchdown10–17
ARIQ2 2:1938Punt10–17
ATLQ2 1:43634Turnover10–17
ARIQ2 0:25327Field goal13–17
ATLQ3 15:007-9Punt13–17
ARIQ3 10:0730Punt13–17
ATLQ3 9:011377Touchdown13–24
ARIQ3 2:56930Turnover on downs13–24
ATLQ4 14:171065Touchdown13–31
ARIQ4 8:481467Touchdown19–31
ATLQ4 4:44631Touchdown19–38
ARIQ4 2:07512Turnover19–38
ATLQ4 1:2100End of half19–38

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer25/4528921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson13584.50
Carson Palmer100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson8111031
Larry Fitzgerald44530
Jermaine Gresham510351
Michael Floyd25310
J.J. Nelson24300
Andre Ellington25190
John Brown12190
Brittan Golden13-10

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3426921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman16603.82
Taylor Gabriel12727.00
Matt Ryan4153.80
Tevin Coleman891.11
Mohamed Sanu155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel45752
Mohamed Sanu88650
Justin Hardy34470
Julio Jones47350
Levine Toilolo11180
Devonta Freeman23170
Austin Hooper2280
Tevin Coleman2240
Patrick DiMarco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.06