Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.196
- 45.3%Success rate49.5%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.093EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.2%
- -0.78CPOE+6.59
- 40.4%Third-down rate43.7%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.89Points / drive2.93
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/45 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 8 | 11 | 103 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/34 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 5 | 75 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 8 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.06