Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.020
- 44.7%Success rate41.6%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.109
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.86CPOE+3.74
- 42.4%Third-down rate35.3%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.70Points / drive1.71
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 34/61 | 301 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 11 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 12 | 18 | 121 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 5 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Darius Johnson | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 13/18 | 172 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 15 | 154 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.14