2013 · Week 8

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

13·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.020
  • 44.7%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.109
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.86CPOE+3.74
  • 42.4%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.71
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–ARI
ATLQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:54311Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:30726Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:03524Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 5:37425Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 3:23785Touchdown3–7
ATLQ2 14:551561Field goal6–7
ARIQ2 7:38180Touchdown6–14
ATLQ2 7:2539Punt6–14
ARIQ2 5:14758Touchdown6–21
ATLQ2 1:553-2Punt6–21
ARIQ2 0:5536Punt6–21
ATLQ2 0:2525End of half6–21
ARIQ3 15:00825Punt6–21
ATLQ3 10:1232Turnover6–21
ARIQ3 8:5031Field goal6–24
ATLQ3 7:071355Turnover6–24
ARIQ3 0:18421Punt6–24
ATLQ4 13:26620Turnover6–24
ARIQ4 12:00620Field goal6–27
ATLQ4 8:401571Touchdown13–27
ARIQ4 4:3800Turnover13–27
ATLQ4 4:37611Turnover13–27
ARIQ4 2:58717Punt13–27
ATLQ4 0:2027End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan34/6130114

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Ryan11313.00
Jacquizz Rodgers284.00
Steven Jackson1160.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas12181210
Drew Davis57771
Darius Johnson49400
Tony Gonzalez38260
Patrick DiMarco22130
Jacquizz Rodgers25110
Steven Jackson3570
Levine Toilolo3360
Chase Coffman0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer13/1817221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington1515410.31
Stepfan Taylor14382.70
Carson Palmer199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald47481
Michael Floyd34301
Rob Housler11140
Andre Roberts1280
Andre Ellington2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.14