2023 · Week 10

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Taylor Heinicke

23·25

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ATL -2

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.055
  • 41.5%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.014
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.52CPOE-2.77
  • 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.88
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:5536Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:361583Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 4:481470Touchdown7–3
ARIQ2 13:27634Field goal7–6
ATLQ2 10:321465Touchdown14–6
ARIQ2 4:07980Touchdown14–12
ATLQ2 0:1000End of half14–12
ATLQ3 15:0034Punt14–12
ARIQ3 14:051058Field goal14–15
ATLQ3 9:16413Punt14–15
ARIQ3 6:4610Turnover14–15
ATLQ3 6:353-3Field goal17–15
ARIQ3 5:1835Punt17–15
ATLQ3 3:133-6Punt17–15
ARIQ3 1:08321Touchdown17–22
ATLQ3 0:191664Turnover on downs17–22
ARIQ4 7:4940Punt17–22
ATLQ4 5:43942Touchdown23–22
ARIQ4 2:33972Field goal23–25

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke8/155510
Desmond Ridder4/63900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson22954.31
Taylor Heinicke4348.50
Tyler Allgeier9313.40
Cordarrelle Patterson3134.30
Desmond Ridder3113.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London34360
Kyle Pitts35300
Bijan Robinson12110
Cordarrelle Patterson2270
Tyler Allgeier1170
Scott Miller1121
Jonnu Smith1310
Van Jefferson0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray19/3224901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner16734.60
Kyler Murray6335.51
Tony Jones11313.00
Keaontay Ingram221.00
Clayton Tune111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride891310
Rondale Moore58430
Michael Wilson36340
Marquise Brown14280
Geoff Swaim22130
Zach Pascal0100
Elijah Higgins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.96