Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.055
- 41.5%Success rate41.0%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.014
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.52CPOE-2.77
- 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.58Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 8/15 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 4/6 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/32 | 249 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 8 | 9 | 131 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.96