2014 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

18·29

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ARI -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.024EPA / play+0.007
  • 39.1%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.161
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -4.59CPOE+1.47
  • 40.7%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00871Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 11:3930Punt0–7
ATLQ1 10:33530Field goal0–10
ARIQ1 8:13412Turnover0–10
ATLQ1 6:27232Touchdown0–17
ARIQ1 5:48510Punt0–17
ATLQ1 3:32955Opp touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 14:07634Punt7–17
ARIQ2 11:03565Turnover7–17
ATLQ2 8:52414Punt7–17
ARIQ2 6:38864Field goal10–17
ATLQ2 2:421373Field goal10–20
ARIQ3 15:00730Punt10–20
ATLQ3 11:00985Field goal10–23
ARIQ3 6:13634Punt10–23
ATLQ3 2:46859Field goal10–26
ARIQ4 12:3536Punt10–26
ATLQ4 11:2539Punt10–26
ARIQ4 8:57528Turnover10–26
ATLQ4 7:171040Field goal10–29
ARIQ4 2:30880Touchdown18–29
ATLQ4 1:0500End of half18–29

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton24/3929412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Grice5163.20
Andre Ellington5122.40
Drew Stanton177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaron Brown79750
Ted Ginn47610
Michael Floyd510530
John Brown25400
John Carlson23380
Marion Grice33240
Stepfan Taylor1231

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4136121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson181015.60
Devonta Freeman8263.30
Jacquizz Rodgers471.80
Devin Hester144.00
Matt Ryan341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones10121891
Harry Douglas9121160
Jacquizz Rodgers33180
Levine Toilolo46151
Devin Hester14100
Eric Weems2290
Devonta Freeman1140
Patrick DiMarco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.77