Closing spread
ARI -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.024EPA / play+0.007
- 39.1%Success rate44.0%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.59CPOE+1.47
- 40.7%Third-down rate44.6%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.54Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 24/39 | 294 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Grice | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron Brown | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/41 | 361 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 18 | 101 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 10 | 12 | 189 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 9 | 12 | 116 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 4 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77