2018 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

14·40

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.240EPA / play+0.083
  • 35.6%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.200
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.160
  • 6.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -7.13CPOE+4.21
  • 29.0%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 0.92Points / drive2.34
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00710Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:47869Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 8:253-6Punt7–0
ARIQ1 7:012-1Opp touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 6:11610Punt7–7
ATLQ1 2:52469Field goal7–10
ARIQ1 0:37411Turnover7–10
ATLQ2 14:09534Touchdown7–17
ARIQ2 12:3230Punt7–17
ATLQ2 10:191065Field goal7–20
ARIQ2 5:16420Punt7–20
ATLQ2 3:4339Punt7–20
ARIQ2 2:15610Turnover7–20
ATLQ2 1:10671Touchdown7–26
ARIQ2 0:1300End of half7–26
ARIQ3 15:00418Punt7–26
ATLQ3 13:08632Punt7–26
ARIQ3 10:41414Punt7–26
ATLQ3 7:32457Touchdown7–33
ARIQ3 5:395-6Punt7–33
ATLQ3 2:461286Touchdown7–40
ARIQ4 11:1444Punt7–40
ATLQ4 8:4831Punt7–40
ARIQ4 7:041369Touchdown14–40
ATLQ4 3:1437Punt14–40
ARIQ4 1:07436End of half14–40

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen13/2213202
Mike Glennon10/1411110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson11333.01
Chase Edmonds8222.80
Josh Rosen284.00
T.J. Logan1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald78820
David Johnson36680
Ricky Seals-Jones38220
Chase Edmonds22220
T.J. Logan44180
Jermaine Gresham11160
Trent Sherfield35151
Jalen Tolliver0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3623120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman1114513.21
Ito Smith9343.80
Matt Ryan3186.01
Mohamed Sanu11111.00
Brian Hill372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones68821
Calvin Ridley57420
Russell Gage24330
Mohamed Sanu36300
Justin Hardy33291
Marvin Hall13100
Ito Smith2350
Tevin Coleman0100
Austin Hooper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.34