Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.083
- 35.6%Success rate46.6%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.200
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.160
- 6.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -7.13CPOE+4.21
- 29.0%Third-down rate45.1%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 0.92Points / drive2.34
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 13/22 | 132 | 0 | 2 |
| Mike Glennon | 10/14 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/36 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 145 | 13.2 | 1 |
| Ito Smith | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.34