2022 · Week 17

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB David Blough

19·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

41

Model margin

+2.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.002
  • 40.7%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.084EPA / rush+0.004
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.70CPOE-0.74
  • 35.4%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–ATL
ARIQ1 15:001465Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 8:241675Touchdown3–7
ARIQ2 13:38730Punt3–7
ATLQ2 10:4610Turnover3–7
ARIQ2 10:3628Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 10:001376Turnover on downs10–7
ARIQ2 2:5434Punt10–13
ATLQ2 1:5115Touchdown10–14
ARIQ2 1:471062Field goal13–14
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half13–14
ATLQ3 15:00412Punt13–14
ARIQ3 12:471141Field goal16–14
ATLQ3 9:00516Punt16–14
ARIQ3 6:52737Missed field goal16–14
ATLQ3 4:0236Punt16–14
ARIQ3 1:55841Turnover on downs16–14
ATLQ4 13:27841Field goal16–17
ARIQ4 9:361251Field goal19–17
ATLQ4 4:571068Field goal19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Blough24/4022210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner16794.90
Corey Clement7324.60
Pharoh Cooper284.00
David Blough273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride710781
Marquise Brown69610
James Conner33310
A.J. Green22170
Greg Dortch410150
Robbie Chosen11130
Andre Baccellia1270
Corey Clement0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder19/2616900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier20834.21
Cordarrelle Patterson9424.71
Desmond Ridder492.30
Avery Williams1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
MyCole Pruitt44490
Drake London58470
Cordarrelle Patterson68420
Damiere Byrd12120
Tyler Allgeier11120
KhaDarel Hodge1150
Avery Williams1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.39
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.70