Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.002
- 40.7%Success rate45.4%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.084EPA / rush+0.004
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.70CPOE-0.74
- 35.4%Third-down rate41.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.60Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 24/40 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Blough | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 7 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/26 | 169 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MyCole Pruitt | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Drake London | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.70