2025 · Week 16

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

26·19

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.014
  • 44.5%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.142
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -3.36CPOE+1.10
  • 33.5%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.88
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI
2012 · W11ARI @ ATL19–23ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00629Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 12:46926Turnover0–3
ARIQ1 9:53555Touchdown0–10
ATLQ1 7:431034Field goal3–10
ARIQ1 2:17837Field goal3–13
ATLQ2 13:27365Touchdown10–13
ARIQ2 11:561259Field goal10–16
ATLQ2 5:021460Touchdown16–16
ARIQ2 0:25338Missed field goal16–16
ATLQ3 15:001449Field goal19–16
ARIQ3 7:25747Missed field goal19–16
ATLQ3 3:421362Touchdown26–16
ARIQ4 12:283-5Punt26–16
ATLQ4 10:43626Turnover26–16
ARIQ4 7:20937Field goal26–19
ATLQ4 4:37626Turnover on downs26–19
ARIQ4 2:05423Turnover26–19
ATLQ4 1:2300End of half26–19

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3519721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier16794.90
Bijan Robinson16764.80
Kirk Cousins5-3-0.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bijan Robinson711921
Kyle Pitts79571
Drake London38270
Darnell Mooney22240
Charlie Woerner1130
David Sills0100
Tyler Allgeier11-60

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett16/3120311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter11655.90
Corey Kiner6325.30
Emari Demercado5306.00
Jacoby Brissett155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah Higgins78910
Michael Wilson23521
Trey McBride48270
Xavier Weaver22190
Marvin Harrison Jr.13140
Steven Sims0100
Josiah Deguara0100
Michael Carter0200
Emari Demercado0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.15
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.94