Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play-0.014
- 44.5%Success rate43.0%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.142
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- -3.36CPOE+1.10
- 33.5%Third-down rate41.6%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.82Points / drive1.88
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/35 | 197 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 11 | 92 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Drake London | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| David Sills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 16/31 | 203 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Corey Kiner | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Higgins | 7 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Xavier Weaver | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.15
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.94