Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.091
- 39.4%Success rate36.5%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.2%Third-down rate28.4%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.24Points / drive1.00
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 20/37 | 187 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Basnight | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 5 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 15/33 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Johnson | 3 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Ryan Collins | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.37