Closing spread
DAL -8.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.148
- 39.6%Success rate36.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.247
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- 34.8%Third-down rate34.1%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.25Points / drive1.12
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:37 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 4:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 4:09 | 5 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q1 1:38 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NO | Q2 13:08 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q2 11:47 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 10:36 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 7:48 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 5:30 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 2:20 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 0:56 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 10:34 | 5 | -2 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| DAL | Q3 8:05 | 4 | 15 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| NO | Q3 5:56 | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| DAL | Q3 5:10 | 11 | 43 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| NO | Q3 0:16 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| DAL | Q4 11:16 | 4 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 24–31 |
| NO | Q4 9:59 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–31 |
| DAL | Q4 9:59 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 24–31 |
| NO | Q4 7:36 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 24–31 |
| DAL | Q4 5:54 | 10 | 74 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| NO | Q4 1:04 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 23/39 | 246 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Tucker | 7 | 11 | 128 | 1 |
| David LaFleur | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Brazzell | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 16/27 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 23 | 61 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Keith Poole | 4 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Josh Wilcox | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Lawrence Dawsey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.57