Closing spread
NO -3
Total
48
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.080
- 43.9%Success rate44.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.85CPOE+2.78
- 34.0%Third-down rate48.9%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.31Points / drive2.09
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 16/26 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Weeden | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Butler | 1 | 1 | 67 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 10 | 49 | 1 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 33/41 | 359 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 5 | 99 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.05
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83