2015 · Week 4

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Brandon Weeden

20·26

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

48

Model margin

+0.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSaints
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.080
  • 43.9%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.85CPOE+2.78
  • 34.0%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.31Points / drive2.09
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NO @ DAL44–19NO
2021 · W13DAL @ NO27–17DAL
2019 · W4DAL @ NO10–12NO
2018 · W13NO @ DAL10–13DAL
2014 · W4NO @ DAL17–38DAL
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2012 · W16NO @ DAL34–31NO
2010 · W12NO @ DAL30–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NO
NOQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DALQ1 14:00774Field goal3–0
NOQ1 9:411180Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 3:481251Touchdown10–7
NOQ2 13:351015Punt10–7
DALQ2 7:30923Punt10–7
NOQ2 1:5037Punt10–7
DALQ2 0:4730Punt10–7
NOQ2 0:19325End of half10–7
DALQ3 15:0039Punt10–7
NOQ3 12:4230Field goal10–10
DALQ3 11:19855Field goal13–10
NOQ3 8:201459Field goal13–13
DALQ3 1:26725Punt13–13
NOQ4 12:431167Touchdown13–20
DALQ4 7:5838Punt13–20
NOQ4 5:44633Punt13–20
DALQ4 4:05891Touchdown20–20
NOQ4 1:51768Missed field goal20–20
DALQ4 0:1200End of half20–20
NOOT280Touchdown20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden16/2624610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lance Dunbar35418.00
Darren McFadden10313.10
Joseph Randle11262.41
Brandon Weeden351.70
Christine Michael1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brice Butler11670
Cole Beasley66620
Jason Witten46570
Terrance Williams310491
James Hanna1170
Gavin Escobar0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees33/4135920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram17774.50
Khiry Robinson6162.71
C.J. Spiller2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
C.J. Spiller55991
Willie Snead66890
Mark Ingram67510
Benjamin Watson33300
Brandon Coleman11300
Brandin Cooks48250
Marques Colston45190
Josh Hill22111
Khiry Robinson2450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.83