2018 · Week 13

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

10·13

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

51.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.009
  • 49.9%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.060
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +5.42CPOE+1.03
  • 46.3%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.94Points / drive1.93
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NO @ DAL44–19NO
2021 · W13DAL @ NO27–17DAL
2019 · W4DAL @ NO10–12NO
2015 · W4DAL @ NO20–26NO
2014 · W4NO @ DAL17–38DAL
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2012 · W16NO @ DAL34–31NO
2010 · W12NO @ DAL30–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DAL
DALQ1 15:001167Field goal0–3
NOQ1 9:2430Punt0–3
DALQ1 8:4945Punt0–3
NOQ1 6:3434Punt0–3
DALQ1 5:07980Touchdown0–10
NOQ1 0:57517Punt0–10
DALQ2 13:3226Turnover0–10
NOQ2 12:53738Turnover on downs0–10
DALQ2 10:001570Field goal0–13
NOQ2 0:5130End of half0–13
NOQ3 15:00945Field goal3–13
DALQ3 10:00611Punt3–13
NOQ3 5:471247Touchdown10–13
DALQ3 1:08417Punt10–13
NOQ4 14:05820Punt10–13
DALQ4 9:151554Turnover10–13
NOQ4 2:3525Turnover10–13
DALQ4 2:0822End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees18/2812711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11363.30
Mark Ingram7273.90
Drew Brees122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas58400
Alvin Kamara811360
Keith Kirkwood13301
Dan Arnold22200
Mark Ingram2310
Tre'Quan Smith0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/2824910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott23753.30
Dak Prescott5224.40
Rod Smith320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper88760
Michael Gallup57760
Ezekiel Elliott66601
Blake Jarwin11120
Cole Beasley2390
Noah Brown1190
Dalton Schultz1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.89