Closing spread
NO -7
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.009
- 49.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.284EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.060
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- +5.42CPOE+1.03
- 46.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.94Points / drive1.93
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/28 | 127 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/28 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 23 | 75 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89