Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
46
Model margin
-0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.063
- 46.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.003
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.147
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- +1.99CPOE-5.00
- 43.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.44Points / drive1.88
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 26/40 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 71 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 33 | 33.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 13 | 89 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 9 | 36 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 19/41 | 264 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 11 | 101 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Harty | 4 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Garrett Griffin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64