2021 · Week 13

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

27·17

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

46

Model margin

-0.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSaints
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.063
  • 46.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.003
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.147
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +1.99CPOE-5.00
  • 43.7%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.44Points / drive1.88
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NO @ DAL44–19NO
2019 · W4DAL @ NO10–12NO
2018 · W13NO @ DAL10–13DAL
2015 · W4DAL @ NO20–26NO
2014 · W4NO @ DAL17–38DAL
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2012 · W16NO @ DAL34–31NO
2010 · W12NO @ DAL30–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NO
NOQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:4430Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:32632Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 7:51620Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 5:1133Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:15785Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 0:59780Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 12:54749Field goal10–7
NOQ2 9:0432Punt10–7
DALQ2 7:323-4Punt10–7
NOQ2 6:03850Turnover10–7
DALQ2 2:191471Field goal13–7
DALQ3 15:0031Punt13–7
NOQ3 13:291055Field goal13–10
DALQ3 8:2638Punt13–10
NOQ3 6:5046Punt13–10
DALQ3 4:58471Touchdown20–10
NOQ3 3:55838Punt20–10
DALQ4 14:07752Punt20–10
NOQ4 10:2135Punt20–10
DALQ4 8:5733Turnover20–10
NOQ4 8:05519Turnover20–10
DALQ4 6:2435Punt20–10
NOQ4 5:20213Turnover20–10
DALQ4 4:4239Punt20–10
NOQ4 3:46420Opp touchdown27–10
NOQ4 2:52270Touchdown27–17
DALQ4 2:32110End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott26/4023811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard77110.11
Ezekiel Elliott13453.50
CeeDee Lamb13333.00
Dak Prescott3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb713890
Dalton Schultz55430
Amari Cooper22410
Michael Gallup59361
Noah Brown23140
Malik Turner11100
Tony Pollard2430
Ezekiel Elliott2320

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill19/4126424

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill111019.20
Mark Ingram10282.80
Ty Montgomery4215.30
Deonte Harty133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deonte Harty48961
Lil'Jordan Humphrey22491
Nick Vannett34480
Juwan Johnson11270
Tre'Quan Smith27150
Marquez Callaway14130
Ty Montgomery4790
Garrett Griffin1190
Kenny Stills0500
Mark Ingram12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.64