2012 · Week 16

Final / OT

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

34·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

55

Model margin

+1.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.094EPA / play+0.043
  • 47.2%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.160EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.89CPOE+3.18
  • 43.1%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 73.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NO @ DAL44–19NO
2021 · W13DAL @ NO27–17DAL
2019 · W4DAL @ NO10–12NO
2018 · W13NO @ DAL10–13DAL
2015 · W4DAL @ NO20–26NO
2014 · W4NO @ DAL17–38DAL
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2010 · W12NO @ DAL30–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DAL
NOQ1 15:001171Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 10:25625Punt7–0
NOQ1 7:281583Missed field goal7–0
DALQ2 14:15374Touchdown7–7
NOQ2 12:47827Punt7–7
DALQ2 9:06685Touchdown7–14
NOQ2 5:431385Touchdown14–14
DALQ2 1:1137Punt14–14
NOQ2 0:47451Field goal17–14
DALQ3 15:00847Field goal17–17
NOQ3 10:26623Punt17–17
DALQ3 8:0032Punt17–17
NOQ3 6:48613Punt17–17
DALQ3 4:2512Turnover17–17
NOQ3 4:1735Touchdown24–17
DALQ3 4:03520Punt24–17
NOQ3 1:031098Touchdown31–17
DALQ4 11:10624Punt31–17
NOQ4 9:39737Punt31–17
DALQ4 4:45580Touchdown31–24
NOQ4 3:35520Punt31–24
DALQ4 1:29664Touchdown31–31
NOQ4 0:1500End of half31–31
DALOT416Punt31–31
NOOT650Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees37/5344630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram21532.51
Darren Sproles9485.30
Pierre Thomas7162.30
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston10131530
Darren Sproles7101040
Jimmy Graham711880
Pierre Thomas79611
Lance Moore45301
Mark Ingram1170
David Thomas1131
Devery Henderson0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo26/4341640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray11403.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant9122242
Jason Witten68600
DeMarco Murray46510
Miles Austin48451
Dwayne Harris13161
Kevin Ogletree11120
James Hanna1180
Felix Jones0100
John Phillips0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

48.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.10