Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
55
Model margin
+1.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.094EPA / play+0.043
- 47.2%Success rate47.2%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.89CPOE+3.18
- 43.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.17Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 37/53 | 446 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 10 | 13 | 153 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 10 | 104 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 26/43 | 416 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 9 | 12 | 224 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
48.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10