Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.089
- 40.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.071EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- -3.67CPOE-4.87
- 36.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.72Points / drive1.68
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 11/16 | 243 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 115 | 5.8 | 3 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jake Haener | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 4 | 96 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 3 | 65 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/39 | 293 | 1 | 2 |
| Cooper Rush | 1/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 6 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36