2024 · Week 2

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

44·19

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.089
  • 40.6%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback-0.067
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -3.67CPOE-4.87
  • 36.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.68
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W13DAL @ NO27–17DAL
2019 · W4DAL @ NO10–12NO
2018 · W13NO @ DAL10–13DAL
2015 · W4DAL @ NO20–26NO
2014 · W4NO @ DAL17–38DAL
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2012 · W16NO @ DAL34–31NO
2010 · W12NO @ DAL30–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DAL
NOQ1 15:00780Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 10:501450Field goal7–3
NOQ1 4:14170Touchdown14–3
DALQ1 4:051341Field goal14–6
NOQ2 11:39470Touchdown21–6
DALQ2 9:30478Touchdown21–13
NOQ2 7:431170Touchdown28–13
DALQ2 2:48717Turnover28–13
NOQ2 1:02320Touchdown35–13
DALQ2 0:39540Field goal35–16
DALQ3 15:00966Field goal35–19
NOQ3 9:051569Touchdown41–19
DALQ3 1:09954Turnover on downs41–19
NOQ4 13:41310Turnover41–19
DALQ4 12:0410Turnover41–19
NOQ4 11:5959Punt41–19
DALQ4 9:3441Turnover on downs41–19
NOQ4 7:49415Field goal44–19
DALQ4 5:1136Punt44–19
NOQ4 4:09322End of half44–19

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr11/1624321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara201155.83
Jamaal Williams8394.90
Taysom Hill3186.00
Rashid Shaheed3134.30
Chris Olave177.00
Derek Carr111.01
Jake Haener3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed44961
Chris Olave46810
Alvin Kamara23651
Taysom Hill1110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/3929312
Cooper Rush1/3600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle7304.30
Ezekiel Elliott6162.70
Dak Prescott2126.00
Deuce Vaughn4112.80
KaVontae Turpin122.00
Brandin Cooks1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb47901
Jalen Tolbert69820
Luke Schoonmaker66430
Rico Dowdle45290
Brandin Cooks22190
Ezekiel Elliott23160
Jalen Brooks13100
Deuce Vaughn1160
KaVontae Turpin2440
Brevyn Spann-Ford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36