Closing spread
NO -6
Total
54
Model margin
+4.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.115
- 47.2%Success rate47.2%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.209
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.26CPOE+5.36
- 35.6%Third-down rate45.1%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 2.21Points / drive2.21
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 10/24 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 34/41 | 392 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 145 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 8 | 107 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59