Closing spread
NO -6
Total
54
Model margin
+4.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cowboys
- OutDeVonte HollomanLBNeck· DNP
- OutJ.J. WilcoxSKnee· DNP
- OutMorris ClaiborneCBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulMiles AustinWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableJason HatcherDTNeck· Limited
- ProbableDeMarcus WareDEThigh· Limited
- ProbableDez BryantWRBack· Limited
- ProbableGeorge SelvieDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableNick HaydenDTRibs· Limited
- ProbableBarry ChurchSHamstring· Full
- ProbableDanny McCraySHip· Full
- ProbableDeMarco MurrayRBKnee· Full
- ProbableDwayne HarrisWRHip· Full
Saints
- QuestionableCameron JordanDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableCurtis LoftonLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDavid HawthorneLBToe· DNP
- QuestionableJahri EvansGHip· Limited
- QuestionableJimmy GrahamTEElbow· Limited
- QuestionableMalcolm JenkinsSKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMarques ColstonWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRoman HarperSKnee· Full
- QuestionableTom JohnsonDEHip· Full
- QuestionableTyrunn WalkerDTKnee· Full
- ProbableDarren SprolesRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableJosh HillTEFoot· Full
- ProbableKenny VaccaroSChest· Full
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.115
- 47.2%Success rate47.2%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.209
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.26CPOE+5.36
- 35.6%Third-down rate45.1%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 2.21Points / drive2.21
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:36 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:14 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q1 3:23 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 14:05 | 16 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| DAL | Q2 5:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NO | Q2 4:01 | 9 | 44 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| DAL | Q2 1:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–21 |
| NO | Q2 0:53 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| DAL | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–28 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 10–28 |
| NO | Q3 10:57 | 9 | 69 | Missed field goal | 10–28 |
| DAL | Q3 6:27 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–28 |
| NO | Q3 4:55 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| DAL | Q3 2:12 | 6 | 84 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| NO | Q3 0:41 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 17–35 |
| DAL | Q3 0:37 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–35 |
| NO | Q3 0:13 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–42 |
| DAL | Q4 12:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–42 |
| NO | Q4 11:11 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–49 |
| DAL | Q4 5:44 | 3 | -16 | Punt | 17–49 |
| NO | Q4 3:43 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 17–49 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 10/24 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 34/41 | 392 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 145 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 8 | 107 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59