2019 · Week 4

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

10·12

Saints

New Orleans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

47

Model margin

+0.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSaints
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.084
  • 48.7%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.192EPA / dropback+0.172
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.067
  • 11.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.10CPOE+3.92
  • 47.2%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.45Points / drive2.45
  • 1.6%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NO @ DAL44–19NO
2021 · W13DAL @ NO27–17DAL
2018 · W13NO @ DAL10–13DAL
2015 · W4DAL @ NO20–26NO
2014 · W4NO @ DAL17–38DAL
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2012 · W16NO @ DAL34–31NO
2010 · W12NO @ DAL30–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NO
DALQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:57733Turnover0–0
DALQ1 8:42829Field goal3–0
NOQ1 5:081047Field goal3–3
DALQ2 14:5535Punt3–3
NOQ2 13:27737Field goal3–6
DALQ2 8:42322Turnover3–6
NOQ2 7:07411Punt3–6
DALQ2 4:39832Turnover3–6
NOQ2 1:30829Field goal3–9
NOQ3 15:0039Punt3–9
DALQ3 13:311279Touchdown10–9
NOQ3 7:471562Field goal10–12
DALQ4 13:41612Punt10–12
NOQ4 11:26723Punt10–12
DALQ4 6:5138Punt10–12
NOQ4 5:22915Punt10–12
DALQ4 1:39844Turnover10–12

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3322301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott18351.91
Dak Prescott177.00
Tavon Austin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten44500
Blake Jarwin33490
Amari Cooper58480
Randall Cobb36410
Ezekiel Elliott67300
Tavon Austin1150
Devin Smith0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater23/3019301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara17694.10
Taysom Hill2168.00
Latavius Murray4143.50
Deonte Harty11010.00
Teddy Bridgewater382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas99950
Josh Hill34290
Jared Cook36210
Alvin Kamara33200
Ted Ginn35190
Latavius Murray1160
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.31