Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.084
- 48.7%Success rate47.0%
- +0.192EPA / dropback+0.172
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.10CPOE+3.92
- 47.2%Third-down rate43.9%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.45Points / drive2.45
- 1.6%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/33 | 223 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 35 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/30 | 193 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.31