2014 · Week 4

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

17·38

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

53.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

6.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.117
  • 47.9%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.068
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +3.60CPOE+5.68
  • 48.2%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.36
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NO @ DAL44–19NO
2021 · W13DAL @ NO27–17DAL
2019 · W4DAL @ NO10–12NO
2018 · W13NO @ DAL10–13DAL
2015 · W4DAL @ NO20–26NO
2013 · W10DAL @ NO17–49NO
2012 · W16NO @ DAL34–31NO
2010 · W12NO @ DAL30–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DAL
DALQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 7:50925Punt0–7
DALQ1 3:43848Punt0–7
NOQ2 14:44965Missed field goal0–7
DALQ2 9:07636Field goal0–10
NOQ2 5:3828Turnover0–10
DALQ2 4:57239Touchdown0–17
NOQ2 4:0338Punt0–17
DALQ2 2:34987Touchdown0–24
NOQ2 0:1918End of half0–24
NOQ3 15:001078Field goal3–24
DALQ3 11:10876Touchdown3–31
NOQ3 6:421169Turnover3–31
DALQ3 2:30630Punt3–31
NOQ4 14:00274Touchdown10–31
DALQ4 13:35311Punt10–31
NOQ4 11:27559Touchdown17–31
DALQ4 9:493-3Punt17–31
NOQ4 8:0344Turnover on downs17–31
DALQ4 6:47644Touchdown17–38
NOQ4 3:34640Turnover17–38
DALQ4 1:5300End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/4434021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson88710.90
Pierre Thomas284.00
Drew Brees166.00
Travaris Cadet111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham810861
Kenny Stills23620
Travaris Cadet66590
Marques Colston511500
Brandin Cooks56310
Khiry Robinson23180
Pierre Thomas22150
Josh Hill11121
Benjamin Watson1170
Robert Meachem0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/2926230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray241496.22
Joseph Randle4225.50
Tony Romo6203.30
Dwayne Harris1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams67772
Jason Witten55610
Dez Bryant36441
Lance Dunbar23360
Dwayne Harris22180
Cole Beasley22140
DeMarco Murray1160
Gavin Escobar1160
James Hanna0100
Devin Street0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

6.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.26