Closing spread
NO -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.117
- 47.9%Success rate46.6%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.068
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.8%
- +3.60CPOE+5.68
- 48.2%Third-down rate47.6%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.11Points / drive2.36
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/44 | 340 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 8 | 87 | 10.9 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/29 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 24 | 149 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Joseph Randle | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 6 | 7 | 77 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
6.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26