1999 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.149
- 40.8%Success rate35.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- 36.6%Third-down rate35.3%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.48Points / drive1.03
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:21 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:06 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 10:52 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 6:41 | 14 | 70 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| GB | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TB | Q2 13:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–6 |
| GB | Q2 11:21 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| TB | Q2 10:18 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| GB | Q2 7:06 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| TB | Q2 2:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–9 |
| GB | Q2 1:43 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 10–9 |
| TB | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–9 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–9 |
| TB | Q3 13:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–9 |
| GB | Q3 11:53 | 1 | 6 | Turnover | 10–9 |
| TB | Q3 11:37 | 5 | 23 | Touchdown | 10–16 |
| GB | Q3 8:35 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 10–16 |
| TB | Q3 6:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–16 |
| GB | Q3 4:37 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–16 |
| TB | Q3 3:35 | 13 | 63 | Touchdown | 10–22 |
| GB | Q4 11:30 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 10–22 |
| TB | Q4 9:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–22 |
| GB | Q4 7:40 | 2 | 17 | Turnover | 10–22 |
| TB | Q4 7:02 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 10–29 |
| GB | Q4 4:41 | 10 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 10–29 |
| TB | Q4 1:56 | 5 | 21 | End of half | 10–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/48 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 15 | 54 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 9 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 17/30 | 133 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Bert Emanuel | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.90