1999 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.149
- 40.8%Success rate35.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- 36.6%Third-down rate35.3%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.48Points / drive1.03
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/48 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 15 | 54 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 9 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 17/30 | 133 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Bert Emanuel | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.90