1999 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

29·28

Browns

Cleveland

QB Ty Detmer

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

IND -13.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.110
  • 41.4%Success rate35.3%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.177
  • 9.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 39.4%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.12
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.036EPA / play allowed+0.100

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CLE
INDQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:5930Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:3636Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:571253Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 4:10972Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 14:06767Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 9:5636Punt7–14
CLEQ2 9:1634Punt7–14
INDQ2 8:151261Field goal10–14
CLEQ2 1:56413Punt10–14
INDQ2 0:51725Field goal13–14
CLEQ3 15:00770Touchdown13–21
INDQ3 10:47664Touchdown19–21
CLEQ3 7:0431Punt19–21
INDQ3 5:2334Punt19–21
CLEQ3 4:24795Touchdown19–28
INDQ3 0:111177Touchdown26–28
CLEQ4 9:5437Punt26–28
INDQ4 8:09613Punt26–28
CLEQ4 6:3034Punt26–28
INDQ4 4:121049Field goal29–28
CLEQ4 0:0400End of half29–28

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/4327600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James281033.73
Peyton Manning2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison14181380
Ken Dilger45560
Terrence Wilkins37280
Marcus Pollard24240
Edgerrin James34180
E.G. Green14120

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ty Detmer15/2617310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar19844.40
Terry Kirby5214.22
Ty Detmer188.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Irv Smith45480
Darrin Chiaverini36401
Kevin Johnson27290
Zola Davis12130
Terry Kirby1180
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar2370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.53.9%2.6%6.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.76
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08