Closing spread
IND -13.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.110
- 41.4%Success rate35.3%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.177
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 39.4%Third-down rate29.7%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.88Points / drive1.12
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.036EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/43 | 276 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 28 | 103 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 14 | 18 | 138 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Detmer | 15/26 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Ty Detmer | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irv Smith | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 3 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Zola Davis | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.76
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08