Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play-0.025
- 39.3%Success rate41.5%
- -0.131EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.108
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.66CPOE-3.92
- 32.3%Third-down rate34.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.56Points / drive1.78
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 15/32 | 178 | 0 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 1/5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 11 | 74 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Pierre Strong | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 15/23 | 305 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 5 | 6 | 125 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.46