2023 · Week 7

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

39·38

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

CLE -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

+1.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapColts
  • -0.127EPA / play-0.025
  • 39.3%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.108
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -5.66CPOE-3.92
  • 32.3%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.78
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND
2003 · W1IND @ CLE9–6IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–IND
CLEQ1 15:00377Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 14:03675Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 11:3832Turnover7–7
INDQ1 10:5436Punt7–7
CLEQ1 9:0334Punt7–7
INDQ1 6:53652Touchdown7–14
CLEQ1 4:2833Punt7–14
INDQ1 2:5136Turnover7–14
CLEQ1 1:23536Touchdown14–14
INDQ2 14:22843Missed field goal14–14
CLEQ2 10:0930Field goal17–14
INDQ2 8:38875Touchdown17–21
CLEQ2 3:51537Punt17–21
INDQ2 1:542-11Opp touchdown24–21
INDQ2 1:4232Punt24–21
CLEQ2 1:17534Field goal27–21
INDQ3 15:0032Punt27–21
CLEQ3 13:223-9Punt27–21
INDQ3 11:4638Turnover27–21
CLEQ3 10:1636Field goal30–21
INDQ3 9:23970Touchdown30–28
CLEQ3 5:11719Turnover on downs30–28
INDQ3 2:18641Field goal30–31
CLEQ4 14:09728Turnover30–31
INDQ4 11:0635Punt30–31
CLEQ4 9:02517Field goal33–31
INDQ4 6:33275Touchdown33–38
CLEQ4 5:383-5Punt33–38
INDQ4 3:3937Punt33–38
CLEQ4 2:351468Touchdown39–38
INDQ4 0:1520Turnover39–38
CLEQ4 0:0200End of half39–38

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker15/3217801
Deshaun Watson1/5501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford11746.71
Kareem Hunt10313.12
Pierre Strong8253.10
Marquise Goodwin11717.00
PJ Walker331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah Moore47590
David Njoku59540
Amari Cooper28220
Donovan Peoples-Jones23220
Jerome Ford24200
Marquise Goodwin1260
Kareem Hunt0100
Harrison Bryant0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew15/2330521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor18754.21
Zack Moss18573.20
Gardner Minshew3299.72
Isaiah McKenzie177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs561251
Michael Pittman25831
Alec Pierce33530
Jonathan Taylor34450
Zack Moss1250
Will Mallory0100
Mo Alie-Cox11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.46