2020 · Week 5

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

23·32

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.091
  • 46.8%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.034
  • 11.3%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -0.03CPOE+2.55
  • 39.7%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND
2003 · W1IND @ CLE9–6IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00969Field goal0–3
INDQ1 10:24972Touchdown7–3
CLEQ1 6:001481Touchdown7–10
INDQ2 14:06756Field goal10–10
CLEQ2 10:15975Touchdown10–17
INDQ2 5:5838Punt10–17
CLEQ2 4:131159Field goal10–20
INDQ2 0:1300End of half10–20
INDQ3 15:00616Opp touchdown16–27
INDQ3 12:1500Touchdown17–27
CLEQ3 12:00513Turnover17–27
INDQ3 9:131039Field goal20–27
CLEQ3 3:58832Punt20–29
INDQ4 14:4410Safety20–29
CLEQ4 14:3933Punt20–29
INDQ4 13:30526Turnover20–29
CLEQ4 11:24713Turnover20–29
INDQ4 7:051273Field goal23–29
CLEQ4 2:50740Field goal23–32
INDQ4 0:21219End of half23–32

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers21/3324302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor12574.81
Nyheim Hines382.70
Ashton Dulin133.00
Jordan Wilkins111.00
Philip Rivers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton610690
Marcus Johnson33530
Ashton Dulin11340
Trey Burton56330
Nyheim Hines24220
Jonathan Taylor23170
Zach Pascal22150
Jack Doyle0200
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3724722
Odell Beckham Jr.1/11800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt20723.60
D'Ernest Johnson8324.00
Baker Mayfield2178.50
Odell Beckham Jr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry49880
Odell Beckham Jr.59580
Austin Hooper510570
Rashard Higgins33311
Kareem Hunt34211
David Njoku1160
D'Ernest Johnson1140
Harrison Bryant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.70