Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.091
- 46.8%Success rate46.9%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.034
- 11.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- -0.03CPOE+2.55
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.5%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.35Points / drive2.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 21/33 | 243 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/37 | 247 | 2 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.70