2017 · Week 3

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

28·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

42

Model margin

+3.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapColts
  • -0.146EPA / play-0.107
  • 38.4%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.115
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -5.42CPOE-4.56
  • 33.6%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.22
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND
2003 · W1IND @ CLE9–6IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–IND
CLEQ1 15:00410Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:03315Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:40614Punt0–0
INDQ1 7:0738Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:0130Punt0–0
INDQ1 4:371070Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 0:24575Touchdown7–7
INDQ2 13:22760Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 10:06628Punt7–14
INDQ2 7:11597Touchdown7–21
CLEQ2 5:1431Punt7–21
INDQ2 4:07411Touchdown7–28
CLEQ2 2:411259Touchdown14–28
INDQ2 0:2700End of half14–28
INDQ3 15:0035Punt14–28
CLEQ3 12:47838Turnover14–28
INDQ3 8:2769Punt14–28
CLEQ3 5:21411Punt14–28
INDQ3 3:26525Turnover14–28
CLEQ3 1:0134Turnover14–28
INDQ3 0:11929Field goal14–31
CLEQ4 10:1831Punt14–31
INDQ4 9:183-3Punt14–31
CLEQ4 8:48551Touchdown21–31
INDQ4 6:56410Punt21–31
CLEQ4 4:051254Touchdown28–31
INDQ4 2:0430Punt28–31
CLEQ4 0:2330Turnover28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer22/4724223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell12443.70
DeShone Kizer7446.31
Duke Johnson22311.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson67810
Kenny Britt310541
Seth DeValve25290
Jordan Leslie11260
David Njoku24121
Isaiah Crowell23100
Kasen Williams12100
Rashard Higgins26100
Ricardo Louis16100
Randall Telfer1140

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett17/2425910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore25572.31
Robert Turbin5183.60
Jacoby Brissett5142.82
Matt Jones133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton791531
Donte Moncrief23440
Quan Bray11220
Jack Doyle25160
Kamar Aiken1190
Brandon Williams1170
Darrell Daniels1160
Robert Turbin1220
Frank Gore1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96