Closing spread
IND -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play-0.107
- 38.4%Success rate38.7%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.7%
- -5.42CPOE-4.56
- 33.6%Third-down rate38.0%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.07Points / drive1.22
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 22/47 | 242 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jordan Leslie | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kasen Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Randall Telfer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/24 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 25 | 57 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 9 | 153 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Quan Bray | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96