Closing spread
IND -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.035
- 39.6%Success rate45.1%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- -4.22CPOE-4.46
- 30.6%Third-down rate42.3%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.48Points / drive1.62
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 25/41 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montario Hardesty | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 10 | 59 | 1 |
| Josh Cooper | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 16/29 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.41