2012 · Week 7

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

13·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapColts
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.035
  • 39.6%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -4.22CPOE-4.46
  • 30.6%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.62
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND
2003 · W1IND @ CLE9–6IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–IND
INDQ1 15:001390Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:231790Touchdown6–7
INDQ2 14:011571Touchdown6–14
CLEQ2 7:41621Punt6–14
INDQ2 4:09836Punt6–14
CLEQ2 1:42830End of half6–14
CLEQ3 15:00680Touchdown13–14
INDQ3 11:531666Field goal13–17
CLEQ3 3:19411Punt13–17
INDQ3 1:5431Punt13–17
CLEQ3 0:27312Punt13–17
INDQ4 14:4736Punt13–17
CLEQ4 13:20519Punt13–17
INDQ4 10:38616Turnover13–17
CLEQ4 7:2539Punt13–17
INDQ4 6:3139Punt13–17
CLEQ4 4:08630Turnover on downs13–17
INDQ4 1:54526Punt13–17
CLEQ4 0:01117End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden25/4126420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montario Hardesty7284.00
Brandon Weeden11313.00
Trent Richardson881.00
Chris Ogbonnaya166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon210591
Josh Cooper48530
Greg Little67521
Benjamin Watson33360
Travis Benjamin35330
Chris Ogbonnaya34170
Trent Richardson22110
Josh Cribbs1180
Jordan Cameron1140

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck16/2918600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard20844.20
Delone Carter11413.70
Andrew Luck3124.02
Mewelde Moore3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne611730
Donnie Avery46460
T.Y. Hilton25220
Vick Ballard11190
Coby Fleener22170
Dwayne Allen1290
Delone Carter0100
LaVon Brazill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.41