Closing spread
IND -13.5
Total
47
Model margin
+7.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.188
- 39.5%Success rate51.2%
- -0.097EPA / dropback+0.339
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 32.4%Third-down rate50.1%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.22Points / drive2.60
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 13:09 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 10:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:13 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 4:11 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 13:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q2 12:58 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 8:06 | 10 | 81 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CLE | Q2 3:14 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 1:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CLE | Q2 0:53 | 5 | 42 | End of half | 3–10 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 70 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| CLE | Q3 7:07 | 18 | 86 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| IND | Q4 14:09 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 6–13 |
| CLE | Q4 10:26 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 6–13 |
| IND | Q4 7:40 | 11 | 66 | End of half | 6–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 22/29 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 0 |
| William Green | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 19/23 | 228 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 108 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ran Carthon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.98