Closing spread
IND -3
Total
50
Model margin
+0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play-0.069
- 45.9%Success rate38.1%
- +0.147EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.10CPOE-7.11
- 42.2%Third-down rate29.9%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.01Points / drive1.44
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 24/53 | 294 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 10 | 19 | 150 | 2 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 13/30 | 136 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.42