2014 · Week 14

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

25·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

50

Model margin

+0.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.029EPA / play-0.069
  • 45.9%Success rate38.1%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +1.10CPOE-7.11
  • 42.2%Third-down rate29.9%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.44
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND
2003 · W1IND @ CLE9–6IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:3035Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:5646Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:0935Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:06537Turnover0–0
INDQ1 5:03515Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:2934Punt0–0
INDQ1 0:583-10Opp touchdown0–7
INDQ1 0:4037Punt0–7
CLEQ2 14:4936Punt0–7
INDQ2 13:5039Punt0–7
CLEQ2 13:12938Missed field goal0–7
INDQ2 8:50670Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 5:57977Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 1:14416Punt7–14
CLEQ2 0:2900End of half7–14
INDQ3 15:00216Turnover7–14
CLEQ3 14:0237Punt7–14
INDQ3 12:09411Opp touchdown7–21
INDQ3 10:21721Field goal10–21
CLEQ3 7:1633Punt10–21
INDQ3 5:40654Touchdown16–21
CLEQ3 4:0137Punt16–21
INDQ3 2:22832Field goal19–21
CLEQ4 14:50517Punt19–21
INDQ4 12:27534Turnover19–21
CLEQ4 10:0832Field goal19–24
INDQ4 8:34422Punt19–24
CLEQ4 6:43525Punt19–24
INDQ4 3:461255Touchdown25–24
CLEQ4 0:3230Turnover25–24
INDQ4 0:0200End of half25–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck24/5329422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andrew Luck5377.41
Trent Richardson7304.30
Dan Herron8263.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton10191502
Coby Fleener510560
Dan Herron47450
Donte Moncrief34330
Reggie Wayne1850
Dwayne Allen1350
Hakeem Nicks0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer13/3013602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell14543.91
Terrance West15543.60
Taylor Gabriel144.00
Brian Hoyer231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron45410
Andrew Hawkins47380
Travis Benjamin15270
Josh Gordon27150
Taylor Gabriel13120
Jim Dray1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.42