2008 · Week 13

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

10·6

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

IND -4

Total

44

Model margin

-3.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.114EPA / play-0.155
  • 48.1%Success rate36.2%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback-0.205
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.086
  • 6.4%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +4.76CPOE-11.69
  • 50.8%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
  • 2.14Points / drive1.05
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND
2003 · W1IND @ CLE9–6IND

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning15/2112502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai15573.80
Dominic Rhodes11353.20
Peyton Manning3-2-0.70

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson16/2611000
Ken Dorsey0/3001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis24773.20
Jason Wright2115.50
Jerome Harrison263.00
Derek Anderson252.50
Josh Cribbs100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%3.1%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.71