Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.129
- 40.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.182
- 5.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- -4.62CPOE-4.66
- 38.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 1.09Points / drive1.05
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 22/32 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 27 | 94 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Owen Marecic | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/38 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 8 | 32 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 3 | 10 | 24 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43