2011 · Week 2

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

27·19

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Kerry Collins

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapColts
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.129
  • 40.3%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.182
  • 5.4%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -4.62CPOE-4.66
  • 38.1%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.05
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND
2003 · W1IND @ CLE9–6IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–IND
INDQ1 15:001033Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 10:3137Punt0–3
INDQ1 9:0630Punt0–3
CLEQ1 8:10717Punt0–3
INDQ1 3:55978Field goal0–6
CLEQ2 14:151265Touchdown7–6
INDQ2 7:53934Field goal7–9
CLEQ2 3:531175Touchdown14–9
INDQ2 0:1500End of half14–9
CLEQ3 15:00932Turnover14–9
INDQ3 10:44842Field goal14–12
CLEQ3 6:52629Punt14–12
INDQ3 3:0934Punt14–12
CLEQ3 2:0533Punt14–12
INDQ3 0:5332Turnover14–12
CLEQ4 14:46619Field goal17–12
INDQ4 10:5736Punt17–12
CLEQ4 9:58620Punt17–12
INDQ4 5:4730Punt17–12
CLEQ4 4:50328Touchdown24–12
INDQ4 3:553-1Turnover24–12
CLEQ4 3:2339Field goal27–12
INDQ4 2:591088Touchdown27–19
CLEQ4 0:2400End of half27–19

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy22/3221110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis27943.52
Colt McCoy3103.30
Montario Hardesty310.30
Owen Marecic111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi36450
Josh Cribbs33410
Greg Little45380
Peyton Hillis44230
Alex Smith35190
Benjamin Watson24160
Evan Moore11161
Owen Marecic23130

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins19/3819111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai14644.60
Delone Carter11464.20
Kerry Collins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne48660
Joseph Addai44370
Dallas Clark48321
Pierre Garcon35280
Austin Collie310240
Brody Eldridge1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.43