1999 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

14·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

Seattle Kingdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

43

Model margin

+0.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.070
  • 38.7%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 39.1%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.40
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.076

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.6 points. SEA are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7KC @ SEA3–20SEA
2022 · W16SEA @ KC10–24KC
2018 · W16KC @ SEA31–38SEA
2014 · W11SEA @ KC20–24KC
2010 · W12KC @ SEA42–24KC
2006 · W8SEA @ KC28–35KC
2002 · W12KC @ SEA32–39SEA
2001 · W17KC @ SEA18–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00954Field goal0–3
KCQ1 9:18511Punt0–3
SEAQ1 6:10415Punt0–3
KCQ1 4:4330Punt0–3
SEAQ1 3:08235Touchdown0–10
KCQ1 2:39512Punt0–10
SEAQ1 1:13623Punt0–10
KCQ2 12:54740Turnover0–10
SEAQ2 9:17743Touchdown0–17
KCQ2 6:231266Touchdown7–17
SEAQ2 1:1439Punt7–17
KCQ2 0:131-1End of half7–17
KCQ3 15:0039Punt7–17
SEAQ3 13:31422Punt7–17
KCQ3 11:4210Turnover7–17
SEAQ3 11:305-2Field goal7–20
KCQ3 9:35377Touchdown14–20
SEAQ3 8:08639Field goal14–23
KCQ3 4:3936Punt14–23
SEAQ3 2:44614Punt14–23
KCQ4 14:5230Punt14–23
SEAQ4 14:2735Punt14–23
KCQ4 12:48618Turnover14–23
SEAQ4 10:263-5Punt14–23
KCQ4 9:29724Punt14–23
SEAQ4 6:23416Punt14–23
KCQ4 4:05836Turnover on downs14–23
SEAQ4 2:0313Punt14–23
KCQ4 0:2324End of half14–23

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac22/4225423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Morris6335.50
Mike Cloud263.00
Elvis Grbac1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn36921
Tony Gonzalez914860
Derrick Alexander48420
Lonnie Johnson35181
Andre Rison1170
Kevin Lockett0400
Bam Morris0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna18/3021620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters18633.50
Jon Kitna310.30
Ahman Green7-4-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Fauria66840
Sean Dawkins48701
Ricky Watters24210
Derrick Mayes22181
Joey Galloway2570

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.52