Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.070
- 38.7%Success rate39.0%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- 39.1%Third-down rate33.0%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.01Points / drive1.40
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 22/42 | 254 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 3 | 6 | 92 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 9 | 14 | 86 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Andre Rison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/30 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 7 | -4 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fauria | 6 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.52