Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.116
- 38.9%Success rate37.3%
- +0.047EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.186
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.6%Third-down rate34.2%
- 40.9%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.28Points / drive1.17
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:16 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:37 | 10 | 43 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q1 0:07 | 11 | 84 | Opp touchdown | 17–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:41 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–7 |
| MIA | Q2 8:41 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q2 2:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:11 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:01 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q3 9:19 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:53 | 3 | 1 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| MIA | Q3 7:01 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:32 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| MIA | Q4 10:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–28 |
| MIA | Q4 9:59 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 37–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:05 | 1 | 56 | Touchdown | 38–28 |
| MIA | Q4 8:56 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 38–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:15 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 38–28 |
| MIA | Q4 4:28 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 38–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:20 | 5 | 19 | End of half | 38–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 11/23 | 190 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 29/52 | 322 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dan Marino | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 6 | 10 | 102 | 1 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 7 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Yatil Green | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ed Perry | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.99