Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
38
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:36 | 12 | 30 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:29 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:08 | 4 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:16 | 5 | 50 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:50 | 6 | 51 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:52 | 10 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 10:54 | 6 | 46 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 7:58 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 6:09 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:10 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:30 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| LAC | Q3 11:22 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 17–13 |
| LV | Q3 7:02 | 12 | 49 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| LAC | Q3 0:26 | 9 | 52 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| LV | Q4 13:18 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LAC | Q4 11:45 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| LV | Q4 8:09 | 11 | 60 | Missed field goal | 20–23 |
| LAC | Q4 3:04 | 6 | 21 | End of half | 20–23 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.