Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.016
- 35.9%Success rate40.8%
- -0.148EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.226EPA / rush-0.154
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- 33.3%Third-down rate36.6%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 0.87Points / drive1.48
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 35/57 | 396 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bates | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Adrian Murrell | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Moore | 6 | 9 | 120 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 13 | 20 | 118 | 1 |
| David Boston | 4 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/34 | 311 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 24 | 146 | 6.1 | 4 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 8 | 93 | 2 |
| Charles Jordan | 2 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.63