1999 · Week 17

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

24·49

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPackers
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.016
  • 35.9%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.148EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.226EPA / rush-0.154
  • 5.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 0.87Points / drive1.48
  • 3.8%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.019

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–GB
GBQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:22510Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:39580Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 7:38935Punt0–7
GBQ1 3:3835Punt0–7
ARIQ1 2:42838Field goal3–7
GBQ2 13:48513Turnover3–7
ARIQ2 11:22310Turnover3–7
GBQ2 10:07752Touchdown3–14
ARIQ2 5:59413Turnover3–14
GBQ2 4:28614Turnover on downs3–14
ARIQ2 2:21513Turnover3–14
GBQ2 1:3830Punt3–14
ARIQ2 1:15753Missed field goal3–14
GBQ2 0:13211End of half3–14
ARIQ3 15:00423Punt3–14
GBQ3 13:031184Touchdown3–21
ARIQ3 5:57877Touchdown10–27
GBQ3 1:4900Touchdown10–28
ARIQ3 1:32714Turnover on downs10–28
GBQ4 14:10447Touchdown10–35
ARIQ4 12:09556Touchdown17–35
GBQ4 9:29519Turnover on downs17–35
ARIQ4 7:22945Turnover17–35
GBQ4 3:42799Touchdown17–42
ARIQ4 2:38762Touchdown24–42
GBQ4 1:31445Touchdown24–49
ARIQ4 0:58415End of half24–49

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer35/5739623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mario Bates17643.81
Adrian Murrell5132.60
Jake Plummer231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Moore691200
Frank Sanders13201181
David Boston49520
Adrian Murrell57370
Mario Bates33350
Terry Hardy25180
Mac Cody1191
Johnny McWilliams1270

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre21/3431121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dorsey Levens241466.14
Brett Favre12020.00
Basil Mitchell2105.00
Matt Hasselbeck100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder68932
Charles Jordan25540
Antonio Freeman11460
Jeff Thomason46440
Corey Bradford36410
Dorsey Levens34230
Basil Mitchell1190
Donald Driver0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.63