Closing spread
GB -13.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.054
- 35.6%Success rate45.9%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.046
- 6.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- -7.13CPOE-1.39
- 29.0%Third-down rate36.5%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 0.92Points / drive2.05
- 3.0%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 11/26 | 149 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 2 |
| Josh Rosen | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 31/50 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 13 | 93 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.09