2018 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

20·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

GB -13.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPackers
  • -0.240EPA / play+0.054
  • 35.6%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.046
  • 6.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -7.13CPOE-1.39
  • 29.0%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 0.92Points / drive2.05
  • 3.0%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–GB
GBQ1 15:00929Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:03727Punt0–0
GBQ1 5:5434Punt0–0
ARIQ1 5:0469Punt0–0
GBQ1 1:17421Punt0–0
ARIQ2 14:4333Punt0–0
GBQ2 13:42535Touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 11:291370Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 4:421446Field goal7–10
ARIQ2 0:1500End of half7–10
ARIQ3 15:0047Punt7–10
GBQ3 13:38512Punt7–10
ARIQ3 11:1238Punt7–10
GBQ3 10:27519Punt7–10
ARIQ3 7:42561Field goal10–10
GBQ3 5:1839Punt10–10
ARIQ3 3:32470Touchdown17–10
GBQ3 1:54611Punt17–10
ARIQ4 13:5867Punt17–10
GBQ4 11:171195Touchdown17–17
ARIQ4 5:261054Field goal20–17
GBQ4 1:411144Missed field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen11/2614900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson20693.50
Chase Edmonds55310.62
Josh Rosen23216.00
Christian Kirk12323.00
T.J. Logan155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk38540
Larry Fitzgerald36480
Trent Sherfield13210
Chase Edmonds22130
Ricky Seals-Jones13100
David Johnson1230

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/5023310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones11363.31
Marquez Valdes-Scantling22914.50
Aaron Rodgers3206.70
Jamaal Williams7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams813931
Jimmy Graham811500
Randall Cobb35250
Marquez Valdes-Scantling27190
Aaron Jones44160
Jamaal Williams44140
Jake Kumerow12110
Robert Tonyan1150
Equanimeous St. Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.09