2009 · WC

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

45·51

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

48

Model margin

-1.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.124EPA / play-0.026
  • 44.9%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +3.74CPOE+3.71
  • 47.0%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.75
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ARI
GBQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 14:42845Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 11:0422Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 10:04222Touchdown0–14
GBQ1 9:16610Punt0–14
ARIQ1 5:54854Field goal0–17
GBQ1 0:34627Missed field goal0–17
ARIQ2 12:53336Turnover0–17
GBQ2 11:06827Touchdown7–17
ARIQ2 6:52866Touchdown7–24
GBQ2 2:16770Field goal10–24
ARIQ3 15:00771Touchdown10–31
GBQ3 11:151171Touchdown17–31
ARIQ3 7:2000Touchdown17–31
GBQ3 7:20867Touchdown24–31
ARIQ3 4:07468Touchdown24–38
GBQ3 2:34880Touchdown31–38
ARIQ4 14:08422Punt31–38
GBQ4 11:53367Touchdown38–38
ARIQ4 10:571180Touchdown38–45
GBQ4 4:55866Touchdown45–45
ARIQ4 1:52567Missed field goal45–45
GBQ4 0:0900End of half45–45
GBOT47Opp touchdown45–51

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4242241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant11655.90
Aaron Rodgers3134.31
Brandon Jackson263.00
Ahman Green351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley691590
Greg Jennings8121301
James Jones35501
Donald Driver46430
Ryan Grant22180
Jordy Nelson12101
Donald Lee0100
Brandon Jackson11-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner29/3337950

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells14916.50
Steve Breaston12828.00
Tim Hightower7192.71
LaRod Stephens-Howling11818.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston791251
Larry Fitzgerald67822
Early Doucet66772
Ben Patrick33420
Tim Hightower33210
LaRod Stephens-Howling34190
Jerheme Urban11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.77