Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
-1.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.026
- 44.9%Success rate45.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- +3.74CPOE+3.71
- 47.0%Third-down rate36.7%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 2.22Points / drive1.75
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/42 | 422 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 6 | 9 | 159 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 8 | 12 | 130 | 1 |
| James Jones | 3 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Donald Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/33 | 379 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 14 | 91 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 7 | 9 | 125 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 7 | 82 | 2 |
| Early Doucet | 6 | 6 | 77 | 2 |
| Ben Patrick | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.77