2015 · Week 16

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

8·38

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

50

Model margin

+4.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.002EPA / play+0.133
  • 42.3%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.260
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.059
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.77CPOE+4.51
  • 33.6%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.34
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:33716Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:40757Punt0–0
GBQ1 5:51716Punt0–0
ARIQ1 2:37750Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 14:07715Punt0–7
ARIQ2 10:50872Field goal0–10
GBQ2 5:48819Punt0–10
ARIQ2 2:0010Turnover0–10
GBQ2 1:5235Turnover0–10
ARIQ2 0:57875Touchdown0–17
GBQ2 0:0600End of half0–17
GBQ3 15:0016Turnover0–17
ARIQ3 14:49228Touchdown0–24
GBQ3 14:02932Opp touchdown0–31
GBQ3 9:34970Touchdown8–31
ARIQ3 6:3137Punt8–31
GBQ3 4:264-19Opp touchdown8–38
GBQ3 3:05924Turnover on downs8–38
ARIQ3 0:04941Punt8–38
GBQ4 9:563-12Punt8–38
ARIQ4 8:21528Turnover8–38
GBQ4 5:1037Punt8–38
ARIQ4 3:18319End of half8–38

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers15/2815111
Scott Tolzien1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy12605.00
Aaron Rodgers3196.30
James Starks3113.70
Randall Cobb122.00
Scott Tolzien100.00
John Crockett4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones511460
Davante Adams36420
Eddie Lacy12281
Andrew Quarless22170
Randall Cobb33150
Jared Abbrederis1250
Richard Rodgers1320

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer18/2726521
Drew Stanton1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams8445.50
Andre Ellington7405.70
David Johnson9394.31
Drew Stanton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd681110
David Johnson36880
Larry Fitzgerald45291
John Brown34251
Jermaine Gresham1270
Andre Ellington1150
Kerwynn Williams1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.37