Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
50
Model margin
+4.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.133
- 42.3%Success rate47.7%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.77CPOE+4.51
- 33.6%Third-down rate47.4%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.72Points / drive2.34
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/28 | 151 | 1 | 1 |
| Scott Tolzien | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| John Crockett | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 5 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/27 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 6 | 8 | 111 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| John Brown | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.37