2025 · Week 7

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

27·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.122EPA / play-0.014
  • 48.0%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.142
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +5.62CPOE+1.10
  • 48.8%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.88
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001451Field goal0–3
GBQ1 7:341136Turnover on downs0–3
ARIQ1 1:18519Punt0–3
GBQ2 13:26947Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 9:06834Field goal3–6
GBQ2 5:023-7Punt3–6
ARIQ2 3:041176Touchdown3–13
GBQ2 0:07122Field goal6–13
GBQ3 15:0037Punt6–13
ARIQ3 13:1943Turnover6–13
GBQ3 11:43449Touchdown13–13
ARIQ3 9:47965Touchdown13–20
GBQ3 4:171157Touchdown20–20
ARIQ4 14:551019Field goal20–23
GBQ4 9:0134Punt20–23
ARIQ4 7:58520Turnover on downs20–23
GBQ4 5:511048Touchdown27–23
ARIQ4 1:501043Turnover on downs27–23
GBQ4 0:0600End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love19/2917910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13554.22
Jordan Love4225.50
Emanuel Wilson6172.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs68720
Tucker Kraft510581
Matthew Golden44370
John FitzPatrick1160
Dontayvion Wicks1250
Josh Jacobs1130
Chris Brooks0100
Emanuel Wilson11-20

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett25/3627920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight14574.10
Jacoby Brissett6264.30
Michael Carter7111.60
D'Ernest Johnson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride1013742
Zay Jones22670
Marvin Harrison Jr.26580
Michael Wilson34400
Michael Carter22250
Bam Knight3470
Greg Dortch2250
Elijah Higgins1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.05