Closing spread
GB -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play-0.014
- 48.0%Success rate43.0%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.142
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- +5.62CPOE+1.10
- 48.8%Third-down rate41.6%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.88
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/29 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5 | 10 | 58 | 1 |
| Matthew Golden | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 25/36 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 10 | 13 | 74 | 2 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.05