Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
49
Model margin
+4.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.133
- 42.3%Success rate47.7%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.77CPOE+4.51
- 33.6%Third-down rate47.4%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.72Points / drive2.34
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/44 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 |
| James Starks | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Janis | 7 | 11 | 145 | 2 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 4 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/41 | 349 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 12 | 176 | 1 |
| John Brown | 5 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 7 | 26 | 2 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.93