2015 · DIV

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

20·26

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

49

Model margin

+4.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.002EPA / play+0.133
  • 42.3%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.260
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.059
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.77CPOE+4.51
  • 33.6%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.34
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:4735Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:091142Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 6:4836Punt0–7
ARIQ1 5:2636Punt0–7
GBQ1 3:531984Field goal3–7
ARIQ2 11:22526Punt3–7
GBQ2 8:521671Field goal6–7
ARIQ2 0:5730End of half6–7
GBQ3 15:00315Turnover6–7
ARIQ3 13:503-1Turnover6–7
GBQ3 13:22681Touchdown13–7
ARIQ3 10:17974Field goal13–10
GBQ3 5:0535Punt13–10
ARIQ3 2:50754Turnover13–10
GBQ4 14:10723Punt13–10
ARIQ4 10:531480Touchdown13–17
GBQ4 3:4445Turnover on downs13–17
ARIQ4 2:3836Field goal13–20
GBQ4 1:55791Touchdown20–20
ARIOT380Touchdown20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/4426121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy12897.40
James Starks7233.30
Aaron Rodgers22110.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Janis7111452
Jared Abbrederis412550
Richard Rodgers58450
James Starks4440
Eddie Lacy2220
James Jones0200
Randall Cobb0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer25/4134932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson15352.30
Andre Ellington331.00
John Brown122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald8121761
John Brown59820
David Johnson69430
Michael Floyd37262
Darren Fells22140
J.J. Nelson1180
Andre Ellington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.93