Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.081
- 47.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.030
- 10.0%Explosive rate11.7%
- +2.11CPOE+1.37
- 43.0%Third-down rate37.6%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.31Points / drive2.38
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/32 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Benson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| James Conner | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 8 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Xavier Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 22/32 | 258 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 3 | 4 | 68 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 4 | 49 | 2 |
| Ben Sims | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 6 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14