2024 · Week 6

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

13·34

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPackers
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.081
  • 47.3%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.030
  • 10.0%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +2.11CPOE+1.37
  • 43.0%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.38
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI
2009 · W17GB @ ARI33–7GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–GB
GBQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:5831Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:26539Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 8:55521Punt0–7
GBQ1 6:371285Touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 14:5535Punt0–14
GBQ2 13:201172Field goal0–17
ARIQ2 6:3237Punt0–23
GBQ2 4:39144Touchdown0–24
ARIQ2 4:32660Touchdown7–24
GBQ2 1:56415Turnover7–24
ARIQ2 1:04940Field goal10–24
GBQ2 0:0400End of half10–24
ARIQ3 15:00963Field goal13–24
GBQ3 9:031060Touchdown13–31
ARIQ3 3:4824Turnover13–31
GBQ3 2:5734Missed field goal13–31
ARIQ3 2:04643Turnover13–31
GBQ3 0:121246Field goal13–34
ARIQ4 9:281259Turnover13–34
GBQ4 5:37863End of half13–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3221410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Benson5265.20
Emari Demercado4256.30
James Conner7243.40
Kyler Murray7142.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride88960
Emari Demercado57390
Greg Dortch35360
James Conner45220
Michael Wilson24211
Xavier Weaver0100
Marvin Harrison Jr.0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love22/3225841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs18623.40
Emanuel Wilson7547.70
Bo Melton22713.50
Chris Brooks4215.30
Jordan Love5132.60
Tucker Kraft122.00
Jayden Reed100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson34681
Romeo Doubs34492
Ben Sims22380
Josh Jacobs33280
Jayden Reed66281
Emanuel Wilson12190
Tucker Kraft24130
Dontayvion Wicks1390
Bo Melton1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14